Gertrude Stein famously said of Oakland “there’s no there there” but she could have just as easily been referring to last week’s Board of Peace meeting. Membership is sparse: apart from the United States, it does not include a single permanent member of the UN Security Council or the G-7.
Concern that President Trump is seeking to replace the United Nations is one reason that so few countries outside of the Middle East are jumping at the chance to join his Board of Peace. His incessant self-aggrandizement may be another. The meeting took place at the U.S. Institute of Peace, renamed the “Donald J. Trump U.S. Institute of Peace” notwithstanding ongoing litigation about the legality of its takeover by the so-called Department of Government Efficiency. (A federal judge ruled last May that the takeover was illegal – writing in her decision that the takeover was a “gross usurpation of power” – but enforcement has been stayed due to the government’s appeal.)
Trump’s meandering, self-congratulatory speech did nothing to convince skeptical heads of government that they made a mistake by staying away. After falsely claiming “we settled eight wars” and crowing about the continued rise of the U.S. stock market – and then launching into a baffling riff about his sexual preferences – Trump only mentioned Gaza at the 28th minute of his 47-minute speech.
The lack of attention paid to Gaza was no surprise. The Board of Peace does not include a single Palestinian representative. The scheduling of the meeting itself (during the daylight hours of Ramadan, when observant Muslims were fasting) ignored the fact that almost all Gazans are Muslim, further reflecting the absence of any consultation with Palestinians.
Botched Arabic plagued the presentation on developing Gaza Trump son-in-law Jared Kushner gave last month in Davos and left no doubt about the lack of any discernible Palestinian input. As the Israeli newspaper Haaretz reported, the plan “was devoid of any genuine consideration for Palestinian realities” and “is disconnected from the reality where Israel is already taking active steps in formulating a new reality on the ground.”
Trump’s speech was as short on specifics as it was long on digressions. Four key questions need addressing.
First, who is going to disarm Hamas? UN Security Council Resolution (UNSCR) 2803 endorsed Trump’s 20-point peace plan and authorized the establishment of an International Stabilization Force (ISF). But the resolution did not specify that forcible disarmament of Hamas was a responsibility for the ISF, opting instead for the tamer and less precise goal of “permanent decommissioning of weapons from non-state armed groups.”
Indonesia – one of five countries that has signed on to provide troops – has already ruled out “combat operations or any action leading to direct confrontation with any armed group.” The U.S. Army Major General named to lead the ISF, Jasper Jeffers, told the Board of Peace meeting that “the ISF will do two things: stabilize the security environment in Gaza and enable civilian governance” but made no mention of disarming Hamas.
Second, will the ISF have enough troops to carry out its mandate? Disarmament of Hamas aside, UNSCR 2803 assigned several wide-ranging tasks to the ISF, including protecting civilians, training and supporting Palestinian police forces, and securing humanitarian corridors. While Morocco, Kazakhstan, Kosovo and Albania will join Indonesia in providing troops for the ISF, commitments have not yet reached the level of 20,000 soldiers and 12,000 police officers that MG Jasper Jeffers envisions.
As points of reference, the population of Gaza today and Kosovo in 1999 are comparable, and the NATO-led Kosovo Force was initially 50,00 strong. Unlike NATO, the five countries who have pledged troops for the ISF in Gaza have not trained together and are not interoperable, which can only complicate their coordination on the ground.
Third, who is going to pay for the reconstruction of Gaza? Estimates for the cost of reconstructing Gaza range as high as $70 billion. President Trump pledged $10 billion but did not indicate the source of the funding. He has not made an appropriation request to Congress, nor has he submitted a reprogramming notification. Other countries attending the meeting pledged $7 billion. To paraphrase the late Senator Everett Dirksen, “a billion here, a billion there, and pretty soon you’re talking real money,” but the $17 billion pledged is far short of what will be needed.
Fourth, will there be a serious effort to find “a credible pathway to Palestinian self-determination and statehood”? This penultimate point in Trump’s 20-point peace plan received no mention in last week’s meeting but is critically important for Palestinians, Israelis, and their neighbors – as well as to potential investors.